Otherwise, you’re just betting right. You can bet right on a coin toss, but that’s not really information. The idea that it is somehow valuable, even more valuable than the news, is predicated entirely on insider trading.
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If Congress were to make the Section 122 tariff permanent, or if the administration successfully replicated it through Section 301 or Section 232 authorities, a 10% rate would generate $925 billion through 2036—recouping just over half of the $1.7 trillion lost. At 15%, the recovery rises to $1.3 trillion. Fully closing the hole would require an additional $400 billion to $800 billion in net new revenue beyond the Section 122 levels, CRFB estimated.